The
ability to bluff big pots
effectively is one of the key
skills that separate good
players from great players. It
is no accident that the games
played at the highest stakes
feature some of the most
daring bluffs: big bluffs are
a central part of the game.
Most
players mix up their play well
for small bets – they’ll
bet out or raise with nothing
on the flop with about the
right frequency – but most
players don’t mix up their
play well on big bets. Some
players never mess around when
they put in really big money
on the turn or river. Other
players can never resist the
big bluff when they see a lot
of money in the middle.
Striking the right balance
between value bets and bluffs
when you are putting big money
in the pot is crucial to
playing top-level poker.
When
you are playing against
world-class competition,
bluffing too often is a bigger
mistake than not bluffing
enough. You will get called
very often and you will look
to everyone like you are
spewing chips. You will wonder
why they are calling you so
often, but the reason will be
somewhat simple: your
opponents will be getting 2:1
odds on a call (if you are
betting the size of the pot)
and they will infer based on
your betting frequency that
you’re bluffing more often
than that.
How
can they infer that you are
bluffing too often? Roughly
speaking, if you are balancing
your big bluffs properly, you
will be betting for value
about two-thirds of the time
and you will be betting as a
bluff about one-third of the
time. Hands that you will bet
big for value on the turn or
river come up quite rarely.
It’s not often that you make
a straight, a flush, a set, or
some other huge hand that
merits a big bet on the river
for value. If you’re betting
big on the turn and river very
often, your opponents will
correctly guess that you’re
bluffing too often.
Bluffing
too often can be a huge
mistake, but I think that not
bluffing often enough in the
truly big spots is one thing
that prevents great players
from becoming world-class.
You’ll never hear someone
say of Phil Ivey, Tom Dwan or
Patrik Antonius "he’s
never messing around in that
spot." They can be
bluffing in any spot. As the
pot gets very big, their
bluffs will be less frequent,
as they will be trying to
represent very thin ranges,
but their bluffing frequency
will never be zero in any spot
(other than some trivial ones
where it’s only appropriate
to raise with the nuts).
Most
of your big bluffs will occur
when you have position on an
opponent. This is especially
true for big moves on the
river. If an opponent checks
to you on the river, it’s
likely not a check of
strength. With one pair hands,
people will often call on the
flop and turn, but not on the
river. Their "check-call,
check-call, check" line
often tells you that they have
a big pair but no better. Some
inexperienced players will
fold to a pot-sized bluff way
too often in this spot, and
will not adjust their behavior
even when they begin to
suspect that you are bluffing
them often. Against these
players, you are obligated to
keep stealing until they
adjust.
Once
again, the ability to pull off
a big bluff is a crucial
element in poker. Do so with
the correct frequency, and
you’ll raise your game to
the next level.
